Bear Market on Bitcoin 2014 vs 2018

mercado bajista 2018

We like to always do a retrospective, ‘as much as possible’, about the crypto market and compare it with the last Bear Market back in the days in 2014. Since then, and for several times in the past, we have stablished a Long Term Healthy Growth Channel for Bitcoin, and in which we also believe bitcoin needs to get in if it’s willing to survive in the future.

  • Note: it needs to be said, in my opinion, if we do not enter in this growth channel for the long term, or determine a new one, Bitcoin would enter in another Parabolic Movement, as we have been explaining to our followers in detail all the 2018, a new bubble may or may not find another top around 35k and re-boom as it did at 20k in December 2017.

This Chart was Shared in Jun 14th 2018, through my Tradingview and Telegram Channel. There i showed 2 possible points for a bounce to be in place before getting in the path in the growth channel. First Point or TP is already reached, it went from 5.8k to 8.4k that we had last Quarter (3Q), as you can see below:

Same Chart on Jul 19th

The details were shared periodically in our channel and again TradingView, and where we demonstrate how bitcoin is willing to get in back in an ascending channel (thing that i know will not happen before an accumulation period). Currently we are waiting to hit next TP around 4.7k. This would mean an entry in the channel.e. Fundamentally speaking, we expect this to be accomplished in a 2 months laps, that means 2 months falling when it starts, it actually coincides with BTC ETFs approvals-Delays (or not) on September 24th, for which we expect Aug-Sept to be neutro bullish in it’s first half and neutro bearish in the second half, it can even prolong to October. Let’s see what’s next:

Growing Channel and undervalued Channe We can see 2 channels, one is steady growth for bitcoin. In 2015 started a new channel more pronounce, same one we are taking into account this time, which means entering in the 1st channel is a total undervaluation for bitcoin, which is not crazy to think is possible, or imagine, it is just only hardly to see. Now, We need to confirm this analysis, we all know that Manipulation is on the table, and is highly vulnerable, so in our new perspective we can see that in the 2014’s Bear Market, Bitcoin bounced in the 0 Level of Fibonacci channel.

It is also coinciding with an undervalued MACD, Low momentum, and 2 times fail attempts to cross above, until it’s done and months later in the 2015 it could start to go up. Today we see this

Although we haven’t reached 0 level of fibonacci channel, around 4.7k (not a perfect target), taking in consideration is a great fractal, that the patterns are repetitive in time, then, we must consider this as a potential area for a reverse and a new market cycle beginning. On the other hand, the MACD is already below 0, it is not showing momentum at all, nevertheless we noted something, apparently it is slightly showing signal for change of the trend, but looking only at this indicator doesn’t confirm anything, it’s just data to take into consideration and don’t ignore it.

In my opinion, we can be starting this phase of undervaluation from the MACD momentum’s, in the 2014 it lasted almost 1 year, perhaps this time would be faster no one knows, but we have to be aware on the possible scenarios to improve our strategies. I always insist on this, Improve your strategy on Risk Management, considering all scenarios. We will be updating this post eventually. We only have to keep monitoring the market and react accordingly.

  • Patience is the Key to Succeed.

See you next time. Criptoleaks __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Market Update 2018

!After 5 months, time has finally come!

I haven’t post so often anymore because i’m not really looking to be #1 in this ecosystem, but overwhelming, yes i do, and of course this is the best way to left a proof of my previous analysis about this market. If you click play, you’ll see it for yourselves, i cannot say it was perfect, i would be bragging, but i will let myself doing it, it was perfect!. I would expect a bounce, and if we go below this channel it will originate another channel (undervalued channel-new cycle), taking this into account that this is an AGGRESSIVE AND STRONG TREND, i wouldn’t be surprise if this channel breaks down in the upcoming weeks. Next support would be the projection from the 1st and original Descending Triangle that everyone was so skeptical about at the beginning, back in the days in June 2018, lol. And from that day on, to create a new channel for healthy growth in the next market cycle that we expect to take place in late 2019.

If you guys were patient as we have always suggest you to be, then you had the Trade of the Year 2018! new opportunities will come if you do not!. Farewell. Criptoleaks

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